Some thought about OIL trade, No.1

No.1: Is this selling strong enough to imply pro has already reversed the direction?

In other words:
When price strong breaks up a significant old supply level, then quickly strong selling occurs, push price into old supply (which is may be the new demand level), is that a pullback for bullish trend, or a fake bullish spike (and in fact a bearish reverse)?

My answer:
According to facts, it's no fixed answer. We need to read price on-going and analyse case by case.


Examples:

1) Long USDCHF
(Its not a standard "2-bar reversal" in daily chart, but intent behind the candles is same)

Nov-08-2013
NY session: after opening
News released:

13:30
		USD		Non-Farm Employment Change		204K	121K	163K
		USD		Unemployment Rate

weekly

daily

H4

H1

sth intereting to read

M30

M15

TG
H4

H1

2) Don't long here


2.1)Difference b/w these two mkt condition
a.not bearish engulf vs. bearish engulf in daily chart
b.buying back: Compression down vs.Spike down


2.2)long after fake spike down --- define 1st tg is the KEY

2.3)short opportunity