blacky's ocean heart

Sunday, December 15, 2013

Some thought about OIL trade, No.3

No.3: When there's a 2-bar reversal candles appear in daily chart, we need to check lower TF for details (check PA at lower TF to see the selling strength/ weakness).

In other words:
We wanna check HOW the second bearish candle formed. Did it compression down, or sold as grand style. To examine the details, it gives us clue to follow pro money's foot prints.

Examples:

Some thought about OIL trade, No.2

No.2: After price hits the 1st tg and pullback occurs, what may happen for the following price action?

A.Price reverse and turn to be bearish.

B.Price pullback, consumed more buying orders and then bullish again.

Some thought about OIL trade, No.1

No.1: Is this selling strong enough to imply pro has already reversed the direction?

In other words:
When price strong breaks up a significant old supply level, then quickly strong selling occurs, push price into old supply (which is may be the new demand level), is that a pullback for bullish trend, or a fake bullish spike (and in fact a bearish reverse)?

My answer:
According to facts, it's no fixed answer. We need to read price on-going and analyse case by case.

Examples:

1) Long USDCHF
(Its not a standard "2-bar reversal" in daily chart, but intent behind the candles is same)

Nov-08-2013
NY session: after opening
News released:

13:30

	USD	Non-Farm Employment Change	204K	121K	163K
	USD	Unemployment Rate

weekly

daily

sth intereting to read

M30

M15

TG
H4

2) Don't long here

2.1)Difference b/w these two mkt condition
a.not bearish engulf vs. bearish engulf in daily chart
b.buying back: Compression down vs.Spike down

2.2)long after fake spike down --- define 1st tg is the KEY

2.3)short opportunity